The edge ledger
Model probabilities vs live market consensus — ROBUST (constructor) and FRAGILE (driver) surfaces.
R13 · Italian Grand Prix
Winner team in top-3 ✓
stage race · 2026-09-06 12:45 · Winner: Kimi Antonelli · Brier model 0.954 vs market 0.955
Constructor scores 1stROBUST
Driver winnerFRAGILE · disclosed
ModelMarket
George Russell▼ -12.5pp
38.0%50.5%
Lewis Hamilton▼ -9.5pp
3.0%12.5%
Charles Leclerc▼ -8.0pp
10.0%18.0%
Lando Norris▲ +7.5pp
11.2%3.6%
Pierre Gasly▼ -3.2pp
2.5%5.7%
R14 · Spanish Grand Prix
Winner team in top-3 ✓
stage race · 2026-09-13 12:45 · Winner: Kimi Antonelli · Brier model 0.917 vs market 0.595
Constructor scores 1stROBUST
Driver winnerFRAGILE · disclosed
ModelMarket
Kimi Antonelli▼ -32.2pp
8.3%40.5%
George Russell▲ +27.6pp
31.6%4.0%
Lando Norris▼ -11.1pp
22.9%34.0%
Max Verstappen▼ -6.0pp
7.5%13.5%
Lewis Hamilton▼ -4.4pp
2.1%6.5%
R15 · Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Winner team in top-3 ✓
stage race · 2026-09-26 10:46 · Winner: George Russell · Brier model 0.475 vs market 0.335
Constructor scores 1stROBUST
Driver winnerFRAGILE · disclosed
ModelMarket
George Russell▼ -14.0pp
52.5%66.5%
Kimi Antonelli▼ -8.1pp
4.4%12.5%
Lando Norris▲ +3.4pp
7.2%3.8%
Oscar Piastri▼ -2.5pp
2.4%5.0%
Charles Leclerc▲ +2.0pp
9.8%7.8%
R16 · Bahrain Grand Prix
Winner team NOT in top-3 ✗
stage race · 2026-10-04 06:15 · Winner: Max Verstappen · Brier model 0.955 vs market 0.390
Constructor scores 1stROBUST
Driver winnerFRAGILE · disclosed
ModelMarket
Max Verstappen▼ -56.5pp
4.5%61.0%
George Russell▲ +41.6pp
43.9%2.3%
Kimi Antonelli▼ -14.8pp
6.7%21.5%
Lewis Hamilton▼ -7.7pp
2.2%9.8%
Lando Norris▲ +6.1pp
8.6%2.5%
R17 · Singapore Grand Prix
Winner team in top-3 ✓
stage race · 2026-10-11 11:01 · Winner: Max Verstappen · Brier model 0.915 vs market 0.355
Constructor scores 1stROBUST
Driver winnerFRAGILE · disclosed
ModelMarket
Max Verstappen▼ -56.0pp
8.5%64.5%
George Russell▲ +35.6pp
36.5%0.9%
Lewis Hamilton▼ -10.5pp
2.5%13.0%
Charles Leclerc▼ -6.2pp
6.3%12.5%
Lando Norris▲ +6.2pp
8.2%2.0%
The hypothesis ledger
Open bets recorded in the living knowledge graph, each dated and testable.
- 2026 Drivers' Title Decided by Under 100 Points
- 2026 Regulation Reset Reorders the Top of the Grid
- 2026 Reset Leverage Is Integration, Not Aero Concept
- Alpine 2026 Gain Is Constraint Release, Not Performance Purchase
- Alpine Low-Drag Package Is a Real Step, Not a Monza One-Off
- Antonelli Holds the 2026 Drivers' Title
- Capital Converts from Sponsor to Owner
- Cost Cap Drives Continued Team Valuation Growth
- Driver Capital Buys the Feeder Ladder
- Hamilton Beats Leclerc at Ferrari in 2026
- Heritage Funding Rides the Tourism Multiplier
- Host Subsidy Outruns Attendance Growth
- LN4 Fusion Reaches Formula 2 by 2029
- LN4 Fusion Stays Independent of McLaren
- LN4 Legacy Displaces Pay Drivers
- Low-Ticket Hosts Buy Market Presence
- Mercedes Wins the 2026 Constructors' Title
- Norris Beats Piastri at McLaren in 2026
- Practice Pace as a Pole Signal
- Private Hosts Absorb the Fee Escalator
- Private Hosts Exit First at Peak Demand
- Profit Decouples from Position
- Quali & Pole Position Insight Surface
- Red Bull Out-Scores Ferrari Over the 2026 Run-In
- Reset-Year Rule-Making Is First-Order
- Root Cause Is the Closed Perpetual Oligopoly
- Rotation Transfers Risk to the Region
- Sponsorship Consolidates Around Tech and Sovereign Capital
- States Trade the Fee for Capital
- Teammate Delta Predicts the Mercedes Line-Up Outcome
- Teams Are Priced on Revenue, Not Profit
- Un-Droppable Venues Set Their Own Price
- Verstappen Beats Any Red Bull Teammate in 2026
- What-If Backtest 2024-2025 Finding
- Williams 2026 Deficit Is Capability-Led Not Partnership-Led
- Within-Team Split Amplification in Reset Years
The honest rule
Hits & misses published
We score every race after it resolves and publish hits and misses alike — a miss is logged in the Corrections Log, not hidden.
ROBUST over FRAGILE
We lead with the team-level signal — the winner's team lands in our model top-3 far more reliably than the exact winner. Driver top-1 on competitive seasons is ~33% — disclosed, never featured.
Paper Kelly only
Stakes are PAPER (no real money). Sizing is a modeling exercise, not financial advice.
Young, not oversold
2026 is a regulation-reset year; the model is calibrated on 2021–25. The ledger is early and we say so — that is the product.