The forecasts
Dated, scored, honest.
2026 regulation reset reorders the top of the grid
macro-grid-reset-2026
At least one team outside the 2025 top four finishes inside the 2026 constructors' top four.
Check date2026-12-31
Threshold>= 1 team outside 2025 top-four finishes inside 2026 top-four
SourceOfficial 2025 final and 2026 final constructors' championship standings
FalsificationRefuted if 2026 top four are all from the 2025 top four; confirmed if any new team enters.
Cost cap drives average team valuation above $5bn
macro-valuation-2028
The cost cap makes teams structurally profitable/scarce; average team valuation exceeds $5bn by end-2028.
Check date2028-12-31
ThresholdAverage team valuation > $5bn (US$)
SourceForbes annual F1 team valuations; corroborate with reported minority-deal multiples (7-8x revenue)
FalsificationRefuted if average valuation <= $5bn at end-2028 (absent a major macro downturn); confirmed if it crosses $5bn.
Tech + sovereign title-sponsor value exceeds 60% of total
macro-sponsorship-2028
Tech and sovereign/national-oil title sponsors grow to >60% of total F1 title-sponsorship value by end-2028.
Check date2028-12-31
ThresholdTech + energy (sovereign/national-oil) title-sponsor value > 60% of total
SourceTitle-sponsor deal values (Sponsorship Economics note + sponsor press releases). Deal values partly estimated - record basis.
FalsificationRefuted if tech+energy share <= 60% at end-2028; confirmed if it exceeds 60%.
Media rights share breaks above its historic band
macro-media-share-2028
The 'media is the growing center of gravity' claim is real, not narrative: media rights exceeds 33% of total F1 revenue by end-2028, breaking the flat 2023-25 band (31.3/32.8/32.2%), lifted by the Apple TV deal + F1 TV growth.
Check date2028-12-31
ThresholdMedia rights share of total F1 revenue > 33% (above the 2023-25 band of 31.3-32.8%)
SourceLiberty Media 10-K / quarterly reports (media rights % of total F1 revenue: 2023 32.2%, 2024 32.8%, 2025 31.3%)
FalsificationRefuted if media share <= 33% at end-2028; confirmed if it exceeds 33%. (Deliberate over-claim vs a flat base rate — the Apple deal is the mechanism that must deliver.)
Sponsor/broadcaster capital converts to equity
macro-sponsor-to-owner-2030
At least one additional sponsor or broadcaster acquires an equity stake in an F1 team or F1 Group entity by 2030 (beyond Aramco-Aston Martin).
Check date2030-12-31
Threshold>= 1 new sponsor/broadcaster -> equity conversion closes (deals that close, not options)
SourceNamed sponsor-to-owner deal announcements (team/F1 Group press releases, reputable business press)
FalsificationRefuted if zero new conversions close by end-2030; confirmed if >= 1 closes.
Grid supply stays locked at 11 teams (fixed-supply test)
macro-grid-lock-2030
The closed-oligopoly fixed-supply pillar holds: no 12th team is admitted by end-2030 despite expressed entry interest; the anti-dilution fee and FIA/FOM approval remain the binding gate.
Check date2030-12-31
ThresholdNo additional team approved (grid stays at 11) through end-2030; refuted if a 12th team receives final FIA/FOM approval
SourceFIA + Formula One Management entry/expansion announcements (Cadillac = 11th, 2026)
FalsificationRefuted if a 12th team is approved by end-2030; confirmed if the grid remains fixed at 11 despite entry interest.
Geopolitics cancels or relocates another Grand Prix
macro-geopolitical-loss-2030
The calendar's geopolitical exposure is structural: at least one scheduled Grand Prix in the 2027-2030 seasons is cancelled or relocated for geopolitical / force-majeure reasons (war, sanctions, regional instability), echoing the 2026 Gulf cancellations.
Check date2030-12-31
Threshold>= 1 scheduled GP cancelled or relocated due to geopolitical/force-majeure in 2027-2030
SourceFIA calendar changes + reputable press (2026 precedent: Bahrain relocated to Sepang, Saudi lost for the season)
FalsificationRefuted if every 2027-2030 GP is held as scheduled (no geopolitical loss); confirmed if >= 1 is cancelled/relocated for geopolitical reasons.